Methodology · Signal Pulse

How Signal Pulse turns
18 answers into a Complexity Tax score.

A clear walkthrough of the diagnostic. The questions, the maths, what's validated, what's modelled and what the score does and doesn't tell you about your organisation.

Version 1.0 May 2026 Light public summary

A note on what's shared here

This is a light public summary of the Signal Pulse model. It covers the structure of the diagnostic, the headline maths and the validation sample. It doesn't include item-level weights, segment baselines, intervention mappings or anything else that's commercially sensitive. If you need a deeper methodology pack for procurement, internal audit or technical due diligence, please get in touch and we'll share a full version under NDA.

What it measures

Three headline numbers, two flags, one band.

Signal Pulse produces a Complexity Tax (how much friction is dragging the organisation), an Efficiency Dividend (the capacity already in the system) and a Net Signal (the gap between the two). Each respondent also gets a band, Lower through Severe, plus two cultural flags that frame how the score should be read.
The instrument

18 questions across six dimensions.

The diagnostic is short by design. Long instruments train respondents to satisfice. The 18 items cluster into three drag dimensions and three capacity dimensions, plus one cultural-state item. Every item uses the same 1, 5 scale.

3 + 5

The drag side

Workflow drag covers decisions reversed, duplicate work, coordination breakdown. Data drag covers reporting friction, version disputes, time spent assembling information instead of using it. Leadership drag captures whether decisions get unmade above the level of the person doing the work.

Higher scores mean more friction. The three dimensions average into the headline Complexity Tax.

3 + 2

The capacity side

Clarity covers shared understanding of priorities. Speed and scale covers the organisation's ability to move once it's decided. Leadership enablement captures whether the senior layer removes blockers or creates them.

These items are reverse-scored so that higher always means better. They combine into the Efficiency Dividend.

1

The normalisation item

A single question that captures whether the organisation still feels the friction or has accepted it as the way things are. Sensitive cultures (1, 2) make recoverable friction visible. Normalised cultures (4, 5) bake it in. This item doesn't change the Tax score itself but multiplies the Net Signal up or down by 20%, since recoverable friction is worth more than friction that's already invisible.

The data we draw on

Statutory registries, market data and a validated research sample.

The diagnostic doesn't run in a vacuum. Every submission is enriched by the data we already have on the organisation, the sector and the population. Live calls to public registries, financial market data and aggregated patterns from the validated research base. The score you see has context, not just answers.
Inputs and enrichment

Six data layers feed every score.

Three are external (statutory and market data), two are internal (the validated research sample and the aggregated submission base) and one is the live diagnostic response itself. Where a source is live in production we mark it. Where it's on the roadmap we say so. Nothing on this page is aspirational.

External · Statutory Live

Companies House (UK)

Real-time API lookup against the UK statutory registry. Returns company number, status, registered address, incorporation date and officer-level data where relevant. Used to pin every UK submission to a real legal entity.

Official UK gov Live API
External · Markets Live

Yahoo Finance · 33 metrics

For any submission resolved to a public ticker, we pull a 33-metric financial snapshot at the moment of submission. Revenue, operating profit, EBITDA, margins, headcount, sector classification, year-on-year deltas and a benchmark index for the relevant exchange.

33 metrics per company Snapshot at submit 24h cache
External · Resolver Live

Global ticker resolver

A curated lookup that maps company names to exchange tickers across LSE, NYSE, NASDAQ, Euronext, SIX, Deutsche Börse, Tokyo, Hong Kong and the major Australian and Indian exchanges. Index pairing happens automatically so YoY performance gets compared to the right benchmark (FTSE, S&P, DAX, CAC, SMI, etc).

11 exchanges Auto-index match
External · US Roadmap

SEC EDGAR (US private)

The US equivalent of Companies House for any organisation that files with the SEC. On roadmap for 2026 to give US private-company submissions the same statutory anchoring UK submissions already have via Companies House.

10-K, 10-Q filings In development
Internal · Research Live

n=443 validation sample

The instrument was fitted on 443 clean responses collected via Prolific across three research stages (January to April 2026). UK and US knowledge workers across function, seniority and sector. This is what gives every score a real population reference rather than a synthetic baseline.

3 research stages UK + US R² 0.41
Internal · Aggregated Live

Submission base · anonymised

Every completed snapshot adds to the aggregated, anonymised reference base, segmented by industry, company size band, role family and function. As volume grows the segment-level baselines tighten. The score isn't just compared to the original n=443, it's compared to the population that resembles your respondent.

Industry-segmented Size-banded Role-resolved
Per submission · Closed Live

Diagnostic response (18 + 5)

The 18 scored items and 5 open-text fields the respondent submits in the 10-minute snapshot. Each open-text field is interpreted by an LLM with constrained driver vocabulary so qualitative signal feeds the score rather than sitting separately.

18 scored items 5 open-text LLM interpreted
Per submission · Behavioural Live

Session metadata

Timestamps, time-per-section, pauses and item revisits. We don't score this directly but we use it to flag patterns: respondents who race through the instrument, or who pause heavily on specific items, get the result framed with the right caveat. Quality control, not surveillance.

Pace tracking Quality flags
Deeper detail under NDA. The exact field mapping, refresh cadences, retention windows, segment definitions and the way external data flows into the scoring layer are available on request for procurement, audit or technical due diligence. Contact us for the full data pack.
Maths and models

Equal weights at the headline. Real statistics underneath.

The Complexity Tax that appears on the results screen is the equal-weighted mean of three drag dimensions. No black box. The complexity sits in the layer beneath, where individual item weights, segment baselines and qualitative classification combine to produce the driver list, the band placement and the narrative. Standardised regression. Z-score normalisation. Threshold banding with hysteresis. LLM-assisted classification on the open text. Every technique listed is in production, fitted on real data.
The headline formula

Three averages, two multipliers, one number.

The Complexity Tax is the equal-weighted mean of the three drag dimensions. The Efficiency Dividend is the mean of the two capacity dimensions, multiplied by a leadership coefficient (0.8 to 1.2) that reflects whether leadership amplifies or dampens it. The Net Signal is the difference between the two, multiplied by a normalisation coefficient (also 0.8 to 1.2). Everything's bounded, defined and reproducible.

≥ 4.2
Severe band threshold. Friction is structural and pervasive.
3.4
High band threshold. Multiple drivers are actively dragging.
2.5
Moderate band threshold. Specific frictions, recoverable.
< 2.5
Lower band. The organisation is largely running clean.
The modelling stack

Six techniques. All in production. All fitted on real data.

The headline number is plain arithmetic so any reader can replicate it. The layer beneath is where the real statistics live. Here's what's running inside the engine. Each technique is named precisely so a technical reader can stress-test it.

Driver ranking

Standardised regression

Each of the 17 scored items has a population β coefficient fitted via standardised regression against an external cultural anchor (the normalisation item). We use β against an external anchor specifically to avoid circularity, regressing on the Tax score itself would just describe how we computed it.

contribution = (item_value - 3) × |β_pop|
Segment context

Z-score normalisation

Every respondent is compared not just to the full sample but to the segment that resembles them. We compute z-scores against pre-fitted segment baselines (company size, role family, function, seniority) so a CFO's score is read against CFO norms, not against everybody.

z = (your_score - segment_μ) / segment_σ
Band placement

Threshold banding with hysteresis

The four bands (Lower, Moderate, High, Severe) use fixed thresholds for the headline placement, plus hysteresis on borderline cases so a score of 3.39 doesn't flip Moderate or High based on a rounding accident. The exact threshold values are published in the formula section above.

band = max(t ∈ T : tax ≥ t)
Multiplicative weights

Named coefficients (0.8 - 1.2)

Two multiplicative coefficients shape the headline numbers. Leadership enablement multiplies the Efficiency Dividend up or down by ±20%. The cultural normalisation flag multiplies the Net Signal up or down by ±20%. Bounded, defined, documented in the code.

net_signal = (dividend − tax) × q_norm_mult
Qualitative signal

Constrained-vocabulary LLM classification

Open-text responses are interpreted by gpt-4o under a locked taxonomy: each response is scored on a 1-5 friction scale, tagged with a primary and secondary driver drawn from a fixed 10-driver vocabulary, and weighted by the relevant population β before flowing into the driver-attribution layer. Multi-label output, weighted contribution. On model failure or malformed JSON, a deterministic neutral fallback fires so a submission never returns a blank score.

driver ∈ {rework, handoff, tool sprawl, ...} × |β_pop|
Financial framing

Fermi-style estimation

The exposure pound figure on the results screen is an explicit Fermi estimate, headcount × hourly-rate proxy × friction coefficient derived from published research. We show a low, mid and high range, not a single number, and we label it "modelled" so a sophisticated reader knows what they're looking at. Order-of-magnitude reliable, not pinpoint accurate.

exposure ≈ headcount × rate × hrs(tax) × 52
The deeper modelling pack. The full β coefficient table, the segment baseline values, the driver vocabulary mapping, the LLM system prompts and the financial coefficient sourcing are available under NDA. Contact us if you need the technical detail for audit or procurement.
Validation

Fitted on n=443 respondents, R² 0.41.

The instrument was developed and validated through three rounds on Prolific between January and April 2026, pooling 443 clean responses across UK and US knowledge workers. The driver-level weights were fitted via standardised regression against a held-out cultural anchor (the normalisation item), avoiding circularity with the Tax score itself. Segment baselines for company size, role type and function are computed from the same dataset.

443
Clean respondents in the validation pool.
0.41
R² on the anchor regression. Solid for an attitudinal instrument.
2.44
Mean Complexity Tax across the sample.
+1.74
Mean Net Signal. The typical organisation has more capacity than drag, just.
What we mean by decision friction

The room can't agree on what's dragging. Increasingly, the room itself is what's dragging.

Across 511 respondents pooled from the research panel and the live diagnostic, two complexity drivers dominate the top of the list: decision delay (32.5% name it as their number one driver) and workflow friction (31.3%). Together, they account for 63.8% of all primary drivers. They sit in the same family. Both describe a room that can't reach a decision, and the work that piles up around it. We group them as "decision friction" because the underlying mechanism is the same: the meeting that should produce an answer doesn't, the approval loop that should close doesn't, the handoff that should resolve doesn't. The decision exists. The friction is the gap between the decision and the action that follows.

63.8%
Companies naming decision delay or workflow friction as their number one driver. Pooled, n=511.
32.5%
Decision delay specifically. The single most common driver across every sector we measured.
31.3%
Workflow friction. The same pattern, one step downstream.
7x
Decision friction's frequency advantage over the next driver. Data fragmentation, the third most common, sits at 9.2%.

Why this matters. Most complexity diagnostics treat all drivers as equal. The data says they're not. Decision friction is structurally dominant. It travels across sectors, headcounts, and business models. The Pulse names the specific shape of decision friction in your organisation, alongside the dimensions where it concentrates. That's what makes the output actionable rather than diagnostic theatre.

What it doesn't do

The diagnostic is real. The benchmarking is modelled.

The validated piece is the score itself: Tax, Dividend, Net Signal, band, drivers, narrative. Where the model becomes modelled rather than measured is in the company-specific framing, peer benchmarks, financial exposure estimates. The results screen flags that distinction in the basis line under the figure. We explain it more fully below.
Reading the modelled layer

Where the numbers are anchored and where they're indicative.

Peer benchmarks

The peer comparison shown on the results screen draws from a reference set of large consumer-goods organisations. If you operate in CPG or an adjacent sector, the benchmark is directly relevant. If you operate outside those sectors (technology, financial services, pharma, retail), the peer comparison should be read as directional rather than precise, since the underlying reference set isn't a perfect sector match. We're actively building out sector-specific reference sets and will note in the results when one is available for your category.

Financial exposure figures

The headline pound figure ("modelled exposure: £X, £Y million") is a Fermi-style estimate, not a measurement. It combines your Tax band, an assumed average compensation level for the relevant company size and a friction-time coefficient derived from published research on organisational drag in knowledge work. It's calibrated to be directionally sensible rather than pinpoint accurate. Two organisations with identical scores can have meaningfully different real exposures depending on factors the instrument can't capture in 10 minutes.

What this means for using the score

Use the Tax band and driver list as the primary read. They're validated against a real population. Use the financial figure as a sense-check on order of magnitude: is this a £100k problem or a £10 million problem? It'll tell you which side of that line you're on, with confidence. The exact number is a model not a measurement, and the basis line under the figure states this explicitly.

What's not shared in this summary

The item-level regression coefficients, segment baseline tables, the driver-to-intervention mapping, the BX narrative prompts and the deeper engineering of the model aren't in this public summary. They're available under NDA for client procurement, internal audit or any other due diligence context where the detail matters.